The appropriate first response to this morning’s attack by Hamas on Israel is, in the words of President Biden’s statement on the subject, to “unequivocally condemn” the assault. The initiator of this latest round of Israeli-Arab warfare is in no doubt. The initial victims include innocent civilians.

The casualties on both sides from just the first few hours of this round make it one of the deadliest episodes in Israeli-Arab conflict in recent years. The casualty count is certain to get far higher. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate in a way in which “our enemy will pay a price the type of which it has never known.” Even if Israel’s response duplicates what its enemy knows well from previous rounds of Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, this will mean Palestinian casualties, including many innocent civilians, several times higher than Israeli casualties.

And none of this will bring closer anything that looks like peace between Israelis and Arabs.

Hamas is exposing itself to resentment from Gazans who will blame the group — which functions as the de facto government of the Gaza Strip — for bringing about the destruction from Israeli retaliatory attacks. Through previous confrontations with Israel, Hamas has had to balance this hazard with whatever support it hopes to obtain by presenting itself as the staunchest champion of Palestinian nationalism and opponent of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands. Understanding why Hamas’s calculations tipped the balance this time in favor of an attack requires multiple explanations.