In addition, he wants to keep his options open for running 3rd-party in case he manages to not get the nomination. That way he can act as a spoiler. I think he’d rather Biden were elected than one of his rivals. If that sounds like a harsh judgment on my part, so be it. I have said many times that I think Trump has changed somewhat since his bout of COVID right before the 2020 election, and since the election itself and of course J6 and then his current prosecutions. I believe his always-present narcissism and anger have grown greater, and his judgment poorer. He never was a conventional Republican, and if for some reason he fails to win the nomination in 2024 he will not hesitate to turn on the party that he will feel has so wronged him, and he will want the party to go down with his own ship and have no problem acting as spoiler.

As I’ve said so many times before when I’m predicting something upsetting, I hope I’m wrong about that. But as it is, I think that Trump loyalists will stick with Trump no matter what, and it will lead to the election of Biden or a Biden-replacement-to-be-named-later.

If this scenario ends up happening that way, I think it will be an unforced error and a tragedy.

[Third-party runs are harder than people think and require way more preparation. Trump would have to do something he’s been unwilling to do before now, too — spend a ton of his own money on organizing. It takes a HUGE effort to qualify for presidential ballots in most states, and independents face earlier deadlines for doing so. If we waits for the primaries to shift to that strategy, it will be too late. — Ed]