iberal columnists are increasingly apoplectic that the small group could play spoiler and derail President Biden’s reelection bid, and unintentionally return Donald Trump to the Oval Office next year. You know Democrats are serious about stopping No Labels, because they’ve enlisted 82-year-old former House majority leader Dick Gephardt to lead a group dedicated to stopping No Labels. …

For Democrats, the key is to ensure that the 2024 presidential election is widely seen as a binary choice, either for or against Trump, instead of a referendum on the performance of the incumbent. Yes, the electorate thinks Joe Biden is too old and doesn’t like Kamala Harris at all. But no one drives the Democratic Party’s turnout as effectively as Donald Trump does, and few Republicans repel independent voters the way Trump does. The 2020 exit polls indicated Biden won self-identified independents, 54 percent to 41 percent.

But Democrats are terrified that this group No Labels could come along and screw it all up.

[The fear is real, but the threat probably isn’t. No Labels isn’t a major party, so any nominee would have to already be organizing in key states to get on the ballot. If this doesn’t launch before Thanksgiving at the latest, it’s not going to happen at all — and even if it starts next week, there’s no money and no infrastructure in place to make it work. This is more about Joe Manchin’s leverage than an actual challenge. — Ed]