The elusive West Virginia Democrat is in the middle of (yet another) extended run of driving both parties crazy as he publicly mulls whether to run for re-election to the Senate or run for president on a third-party ticket. He could also decide to retire (he’ll turn 76 next month), but that seems the least likely path for someone who has such obvious enthusiasm for negotiating, deal-making, and being in the thick of the political fray.

My theory based on the evidence to date is that ultimately, when Manchin announces his decision at year’s end, he will tell us he is running for re-election. But first he will tease state and national Republicans with the prospect of an open Senate seat and/or a bipartisan No Labels ticket that polling shows would drain votes from President Joe Biden and elect the GOP nominee. If that is Donald Trump, it’s no stretch to predict disaster will follow.

[My theory is that Manchin has already decided to run for governor. The No Labels flirtation is an attempt to gain leverage for enough pork to take back home to restore his reputation in West Virginia, and to get an agreement for national support for a run for office outside of DC. It’s no secret that Manchin preferred being governor over the Senate. Patrick Morrisey would likely beat Manchin, but Jim Justice is all but guaranteed to win the Senate race, especially given progressives’ ire over his centrist voting record. — Ed]