If Texas is the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity across the country next year, then they will not be picking up any Senate seats.

Is Allred a pretty good candidate by Texas Democrat standards? Perhaps. But it is still Texas, and it will be a presidential turnout year. We go through this narrative every cycle, it seems; in 2022, the Uvalde mass shooting and the end of Roe v. Wade were supposed to drive Democrats to new heights. Most Republicans won easily. As the Texas Tribune summarized, “O’Rourke, the most promising Texas Democrat in recent history, got walloped by Gov. Greg Abbott by 11 percentage points, and every other statewide candidate lost by double digits.”

[And that was in a cycle in which Democrats did reasonably well, considering the normal midterm headwinds. If Republicans end up with someone other than Trump at the top of the ticket, the dropoff in enthusiasm for election turnout among Democrats with Biden will be massive — and deadly down-ballot everywhere, but especially Texas. — Ed]