The RNC has a big problem with its debate rules -- and few realize it

According to the RNC’s guidelines, in order to count for debate qualifying, polls have to survey at least 800 “likely” primary voters or caucus-goers. That criteria aren’t just strict — they’re unrealistic.

As the 51-day qualifying period begins on Saturday, a review of FiveThirtyEight’s database of GOP primary polling nationally and in the four early “carve out” states shows that only two polls out of 70 conducted in the previous 51 days would meet those requirements.

While it’s a good bet that there will be at least three qualifying polls conducted between now and the Aug. 21 deadline, the RNC’s criteria could spell trouble for candidates outside of the five polling leaders: former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.).

(via Right Scoop)

[I’m not sure that’s “unrealistic.” Pollsters should already be working with samples of that size and qualification, at least if they want to be taken seriously. The RNC made these rules clear months in advance too, so pollsters have had plenty of time to work on responsible and meaningful methodology. As to the SOL factor for some GOP candidates, I’m not sure that’s a bad thing either. A debate with five people will be better for voters than a debate with 14, when the other nine may not have ten percent support combined between them. — Ed]