“He is not going to debate unless he’s forced to by changing polling,” said a person who has encouraged Trump to take the stage. “I disagree with it, but it is where he is.”

All of that helps explain why, in interviews with more than a half-dozen advisers, it was clear that — even in his private conversations — Trump is leaning heavily toward skipping that first debate.

Trump is also exploring options for counterprogramming during the first debate, according to people familiar with his deliberations.

[Trump has been threatening this for weeks now, and he did this to great effect in 2015. However, it’s not 2015, and the rallies are no longer novel either. It’s not clear how voters will react to snubbing a debate in this cycle, but given the interest in DeSantis and other candidates, I’d guess that viewers will probably tune into the debate rather than watch Trump extol himself for the nth time. It will simplify matters for the other contenders, who *could* then focus their attacks on Trump without allowing for any rebuttal. Chris Christie in particular will use the absence to accuse Trump of cowardice, no doubt. — Ed]