How much do the Republican Party’s chances in the general election depend on whether Trump or DeSantis is the nominee? Let’s consult the people who have put money on it. Combining two separate election-betting markets — one about who will win the Republican nomination, and the other about who will win the general election — yields the following probabilities of becoming president if nominated: Ron DeSantis enjoys a 60 percent chance of winning if nominated, vs. 37 percent for Donald Trump.
Betting markets are not omniscient, of course, but they do produce a convenient distillation of the conventional wisdom among people who are not pure partisans. So let’s take these estimates seriously. The market is telling us that DeSantis as the nominee has a six in ten chance of becoming president, while Trump as the nominee has less than a four in ten chance.
[I’ve never been a big believer in the political futures markets, especially this far out from any vote. Friends of mine put more faith in them, but at this stage it looks more like a reflection of conventional wisdom, as Richwine also notes. That in itself might be useful, as it appears that the impact of the electability argument may be bigger than people assume at the moment. It’s worth noting, but … — Ed]
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