The case for Ron DeSantis isn’t hard to make, though he himself seems to struggle to make it. DeSantis brings to the table everything Republicans like about Trump (while being vague enough about the particulars so individual Republicans can define that for themselves) without the incontinence that renders Trump himself unacceptable to a critical mass of the general electorate and weakens his ability to get things done in office. But in making this case, often implicitly, the governor has avoided the appearance of a stark contrast with Trump — at least, so far.

Instead, DeSantis has preferred to emphasize niche issues that Ruffini’s analysis suggests have narrow appeal. The goal is obvious — 50 percent plus one more Republican voter. The tactics DeSantis is applying in pursuit of it, however, limit the avenues he can take to achieve it.

If wokeness is a fad among the over-educated progressive Left, Ruffini’s analysis suggests anti-wokeness is a fixation of the over-educated cultural Right. It’s not going to be enough to oust the dominant figure in Republican politics from his prohibitive perch at the top of the polls. DeSantis has to win more voters, yes, but Trump also has to lose them. So far, DeSantis’s efforts to pick this lock aren’t working. Perhaps it’s time for a change.

[Or, and hear me out on this, perhaps it’s possible to make multiple arguments in a single campaign. Governors as successful as DeSantis have to do that constantly, and his 19-point landslide last November demonstrated his skill in that regard. Not only did DeSantis appeal to the broadest swath of Republicans, he also carried a lot of independents and Democrats along the way too. It may be better to exercise some patience and to wait for more of the campaign than just twenty days or so to see what DeSantis will do. It’s certainly too early to call for a change in direction. — Ed]