So what is behind this pattern? Antagonism toward Trump has increased Democratic turnout and fundraising in every national and state election. This may be a long-term advantage to Democrats delivered by Trump. GOP candidates in 2022 were outspent in virtually all major U.S. Senate races and in the Minnesota state gubernatorial and most Minnesota state legislative races.

What has the GOP received electorally in return? Trump has run competitively while losing the popular vote in two national elections. The GOP has scored some successes in elections when Trump is on the ballot. But any Trump benefit is pretty much restricted to Trump’s ballot appearance. Even so, Trump’s ballot presence does not win him the popular vote nationally or in Minnesota.

This has proven to be a bad electoral bet for Republicans.