Glenn was the first to say, in effect, that we would be lucky if twenty percent worked. The old equation has been stood on its head. I hope and pray we never find out, but I’m hitting a point where I think that if 10 percent worked I would be surprised. Complex systems require maintenance, testing, and upgrades. What’s the first thing that gets cut when Gen. Cyrus wants to have another struggle session on white rage during one of the lowest budgets in decades? Or, your newly minted “officer” who is really a civilian there to loot so he can maybe become a true oligarch, looks for easy money? Old story, on pretty much every side out there. Sigh.

That Russia is having to drop it’s nuclear threat to an older and more limited system speaks volumes. It says a lot about production, and the hints of sabotage are getting louder. It is also the strongest indicator yet that Russian nuclear forces have been, and possibly still are, getting gutted by corruption just like the rest of the military. Like I say, there is a lot of RUMINT going around, but there are enough indicators for me to feel confident on this.

So much so I am dropping my 40/60 60/40 level. I think we have less than a ten percent chance of any nuclear usage, but will drop the likelihood to 10 percent. The only reason I’m going that high is that stupidity is still a factor.