Though many American “elites” refuse to see it, the PRC’s elite know full well that American power resides in its sea power. To reclaim what she sees as historically hers at sea, this land power knows it must fight and defeat the Americans at sea – or have such regional strength that the Americans realize they cannot oppose the PRC righting historical wrongs west of Wake. She would be happy for us to just gracefully back away from the inevitable, but if needed she is prepared – as Japan did to Russia over a century ago – to force the new reality at war.

History has seen this pattern before, and will see it again. It is as old as our species. It doesn’t matter if you are the village elders in the forests at the edge of the steppe, or the French General Staff in 1939 – ignoring, happy-talking, mental vapor-lock, or just hoping is never the best approach to a rising power’s challenge.

Let’s look at two recent examples of the state of the conversation at the very heights of our uniformed leadership. Two very different men with two very different approaches.