Hard landing or harder one?

In his testimony to Congress earlier this week, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell indicated “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated” and “restoring price stability will probably require that we maintain a restrictive stance for some time”. This was the tough Fed on display, and markets accordingly tanked. Yet a few weeks earlier, Powell had set the financial markets off to the races when he said, “We can now say, for the first time, the disinflationary process has started.” Financial markets, used to years of easy money, celebrate at the slightest indication that the Fed will soften policy, making its task harder. Yet they are not the only market that is not currently co-operating.

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