How sabotage and assassinations could escalate the Ukraine war

Sabotage in war is nothing new, but if it occurs on the territory of a purportedly neutral NATO member supplying aid to Ukraine to fight against Russia, conflict escalation is possible.

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A recent fire at a drone factory in Latvia supplying Ukraine with military assistance is an example of such potential sabotage. The covert nature of sabotage makes state attribution difficult. If the sabotage occurs on NATO territory, both the belligerent and victim states have reasons to avoid attribution. If not, NATO Article V might be invoked by the aggrieved state though this does not mean war, only consultation amongst the NATO allies. The cause of the drone factory fire is unknown, but reports indicate that it was not arson. If sabotage is confirmed and attributed to a Russian state actor, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could expand to include several NATO nations.

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