According to the United Nations, India’s population of 1.4 billion is expected to surpass China’s in the next three months. This development is due in part to the one-child policy of former Chinese Communist Party Chairman Deng Xiaoping.
Doubtless, there will be celebration and hype in New Delhi over leading the world by this measure. As I have written in The American Spectator, this year India is hosting the G20, which will give the country an opportunity to present its major accomplishments in recent decades. It may now command more attention as the world’s most populous nation.
There is currently no shortage of good economic news in India, whose growth rate for fiscal year 2024 is projected at 6 percent by the World Economic Forum, the largest of any major economy. The country has now overtaken the United Kingdom as the world’s fifth-largest economy, with 2022 GDP forecasted at $3.5 trillion, according to the German data firm Statista. Not only that, Morgan Stanley, the U.S. investment bank, is predicting that India will be the third-largest economy in the world by 2027, overtaking both Germany and Japan. Granted, GDP is only one measure of a country’s performance — workforce quality, condition of the environment, education standards, and rural access and poverty are other metrics to consider. Nonetheless, we should expect India to be hosting the G20 from a position that conveys strength.
While these economic developments are indeed favorable, there are major structural issues and constraints for the Indian economy to address.
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