Democrats are rabid in their desire for Trump to be indicted; it wouldn’t bother them in the slightest if Trump were prosecuted despite the Clinton precedent. They know, furthermore, that the press would support such a prosecution. Nevertheless, while Biden needs to keep his base animated, he has to weigh that need against the political risks involved in charging Trump. An indictment of Trump for mishandling classified information can only be justified to the public — including Republicans and independents — if Trump’s misconduct appears to be so much worse than what Democrats have gotten away with that prosecutors cannot turn a blind eye.

The Clinton precedent makes that a high bar to clear. It is why there has been such an emphasis on such matters as Trump’s allegedly obstructing and lying to the grand jury, the sheer girth of classified material physically seized from Trump (which certainly looks worse than the files Hillary BleachBitted out of existence), and the continuing nature of the crime — the fact that documents are still missing. By highlighting these aspects of Trump’s case, Democrats and their amen chorus seek to frame his conduct as uniquely awful and thus meriting indictment despite the get-out-of-jail-free card afforded Clinton.

Now, however, we add into the mix Biden’s seeming commission of the same generic offense for which Trump is under investigation — different in degree of seriousness, sure, but not really different in kind. With a thin margin of error, this is not the sort of thing Biden’s prosecutors can afford.

[I had a similar conclusion earlier, and that was before the Ukraine connection came out. Andy thinks that Trump isn’t fully out of the woods on an obstruction charge over the documents, but there too the Hillary precedent makes it politically explosive. — Ed]