The economic effects of China’s attempt to rid itself of the virus have never been clearer. The movement of people has been severely curtailed. During the week of November 14th, as covid cases rose, the number of domestic flights fell by 45% year on year. China’s three biggest airlines lost a combined 74bn yuan in the first nine months of 2022. Subway traffic in China’s ten largest cities was down by 32% year on year, according to Macquarie, an Australian investment bank. Box-office revenues, a gauge of people’s willingness to go out and about, tumbled by 64%. Only 42% of China’s cinemas were open on November 27th. Some of the largest cinemas have closed down altogether.

Lockdowns are now in place in cities accounting for about a quarter of China’s gdp, surpassing a previous peak of about a fifth in mid-April, when Shanghai was shuttered, according to an index compiled by Nomura, a Japanese investment bank. China’s youth unemployment rate hit a record high in July at 19.9%. A measure of road-freight throughput in the week to November 25th was 33% below its level the year before. …

With pressure building on many fronts, leaders in Beijing must contend with the notion that they will eventually lose control of both the virus and public patience. The path forward is murky. Few analysts believe China is preparing for an imminent reopening. Instead many see a period of confusion and painful policy blunders immediately ahead. For at least the next four months, or until after an important political meeting in March, leaders in Beijing are expected to uphold zero-covid while also attempting to refine their methods. This situation could persist through much of 2023 if central government authorities fail to devise an exit strategy.

[The contradictions within China’s oppressive monomaniacal communist-Xi cult system are being exposed. This was never “a good plan,” not even in theory, as the Economist suggests in another part of this essay. It was the only plan that could cover up the utter failures within Xi’s system, and that’s the only reason Beijing can’t find an exit strategy: they’d have to admit their failures and undermine the cult. — Ed]