In the closing weeks of the 2022 midterm cycle, survey research suggests the trends of recent years are likely to continue. In 2018, Republicans won only 25% of the Hispanic vote. This year, the four most recent national surveys of likely voters place the Republican share of Hispanic voters between 34% and 38%. In Florida, where Republican Ron DeSantis leads Democrat Charlie Crist by 8 points in the race for governor, he leads by 16 among Hispanics. In Texas, where Democrat Beto O’Rourke trails Gov. Greg Abbott by 7 points overall, he is managing no better than a statistical tie among Hispanics.

Unless Democrats can increase their appeal among Hispanic voters in these states, it’s difficult to see how they’ll be able to win statewide elections ever again. This means setting aside longstanding myths and focusing honestly on what really moves this part of the electorate. …

Their challenge also goes beyond specific issues. As recent controversies over redistricting in Los Angeles and school-admissions standards across the country should have made clear, the phrase “people of color” denotes a discredited thesis about contemporary politics, not a real political unity. The distinctive black experience in America isn’t the template for other minority groups. Democrats can’t regain lost ground among Hispanics until they set aside this self-defeating misconception and engage with the issues that matter to this key group.

[I have been arguing this last point for years, especially in this cycle. It’s what the “demographics is destiny” mythology gets wrong. And it’s so far off that it will eventually threaten Democrats’ grip on the black vote, especially after this massive inflationary cycle. — Ed]