Over the last decade and a half, fertility rates in the U.S. have declined from above‐replacement at the top of the Great Recession, to below replacement rate a few years later. Since then, fertility rates have continued along a downward trajectory.
More recently, the total fertility rate—a measure of the expected number of children a woman will have if she survives her reproductive years, and a sum of age‐specific fertility rates—declined to record lows (1.64) during the pandemic. In 2021, U.S. births ticked up enough to put birth rates inline with their pre‐pandemic, downward trend and remain at sub‐replacement levels.
For a variety of reasons, sub‐replacement level fertility and continued fertility decline have caused concern among researchers and commentators alike. For one thing, assuming that sub‐replacement level fertility is sustained, and that it is not mitigated or offset by population momentum, increasing life expectancy, or immigration, population size will decline over time.[1] This could have economic and fiscal implications, including declining overall GDP or widening solvency issues for major federal programs and public pensions.
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