Next week the upper house of Russia’s parliament is expected to rubber stamp the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories. The festivities, while harking back to spring of eight years ago, precede what promises to be a bloody and difficult winter. Unlike the quick seizure of Crimea in 2014, the war in Ukraine since February has cost Moscow at least 80,000 wounded or killed, according to Western estimates.

Those casualties are likely to grow, as Russia tries to stanch the Ukrainian advance and claw back territory it lost before Ukrainian offensives in recent weeks.

The mobilization has already exposed festering class resentments inside Russia and triggered protests in heavily working class and minority regions, in addition to Moscow and St. Petersburg. More than 100,000 people have left the country since Mr. Putin issued the order last week. They join several hundred thousand others who left Russia in the months after the February invasion.