Time to plan for what comes after Putin -- and what comes after *that*

The consensus is that a post-Putin Russia would be worse than it is today. Garisons offered three potential scenarios. First, an even more Stalinist state than current-day Russia. Second, an internal war, likely revolutionary against the power structure. Third, the disintegration and fragmentation of Russia, with pockets controlled by militias and warlords.

The first and second scenarios would mean a leadership change, and it’s unclear who or what would be at the helm. The third would mean the man who lamented the dissolution of the Soviet Union ironically would’ve brought about the disintegration of Russia, sparking a free-for-all not seen in decades.

Those, of course, aren’t the only potential futures. Putin could hold onto power, after all, especially if Russia defies current odds and wins. It’s also possible that whomever or whatever is in charge next staves off the apocalyptic predictions with strong leadership and deft diplomacy.

But Latvia’s message to the world is that it’s already time to start preparing for the post-post-Putin scenario. That’s where the West might have a chance to affect change and break the cycle of revolution-dictatorship-revolution-dictatorship.