The population decline stems from a low birthrate, which also means China’s population is aging and its workforce shrinking. By 2050, more than a quarter of the population will be older than 65, Australia’s Lowy Institute projects. Lowy expects China’s growth rate to slow to an average of less than 3% over the next three decades as a result.

China-watchers agree on those doleful forecasts. They disagree, though, on what that means for the country’s future and for U.S. policy. How does a rising superpower react when the foundations of its strength appear to be eroding?

Two foreign policy scholars, Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins and Michael Beckley of Tufts, have offered a frightening thesis: China’s leaders know their power is about to diminish, and that will make them more likely to take risks in the short run — to invade Taiwan, for example.

China “is losing confidence that time is on its side,” they write in a recent book, “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China.”

“China will have strong incentives to use force against its neighbors … even at risk of war with the United States,” they warn. The “moment of maximum danger,” they suggest, is this decade: the 2020s.

(via Instapundit)