Has abortion killed GOP chances in Minnesota?

The latest Survey USA poll for KSTP television finds Gov. Tim Walz with a commanding 18-point lead over GOP challenger Scott Jensen – 51% to 33%. Walz in this survey prevails among three crucial groups of voters by huge margins – women (58% to 30%), independents (53% to 23%) and suburbanites (47% to 35%).

This is a big change from MinnPost’s early June poll of likely voters by Change Research showing Walz with a narrow 42% to 40% lead over Jensen and an early May KSTP poll of likely voters showing Walz ahead by only 44% to 39%. …

One clue to Jensen’s lagging performance can be found in likely voters’ views on abortion. A considerable 68% of likely voters oppose overturning the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision. Fully, 40% of likely voters indicate the abortion issue will “very likely” influence their voting in the governor’s race and in that group, Walz lead Jensen by 50 points – 71% to 21%. That finding suggests the Alliance for a Better Minnesota’s media ads attacking Jensen on abortion have proven effective with many voters.