It currently looks like neither side is capable of inflicting a decisive victory over the other. Russia may consolidate its pre-war position in eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine can thwart Putin’s ambitions and survive as an independent nation. That would represent a moral victory for Ukraine.
However, it will not result in a durable peace, whatever the short-term outcome. Both sides know that a ceasefire will be temporary and serve as a prelude to an outbreak of conflict in what has been a classical frontier war ever since it first erupted in 2014. Matters are further complicated by the current state of global instability, one where the world order is undermined by the absence of clarity about the balance of power.
Geopolitical illiteracy and the historical amnesia prevailing in the West today have helped lead us to this impasse. The Western rhetoric of a new world order or a Great Reset is devoid of any serious content. Stumbling in the dark, the West is in danger of being trapped in its presentist swamp.
Western societies will have to learn that you cannot pause or delete history. As the war in Ukraine illustrates, the past catches up with us sooner or later.
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