For decades, Iran has sought to diminish America’s military presence and political influence in the Middle East. Yet some ambitions carry within them the seeds of their own undoing. The very policies intended to push out the United States have instead strengthened the rationale for Washington’s continued engagement.
Before the erosion of its regional axis, Iran based its security doctrine on forward defense, projecting influence beyond its borders to keep threats at bay. However, what Tehran regarded as a defensive strategy, the Persian Gulf states perceived as an expansionist bid for regional primacy. As a result, they deepened their security ties with Washington, making the U.S. military presence more indispensable to Gulf security rather than less.
Iran’s current approach suggests that it is repeating the same strategic mistake, both in its confrontation with the United States and in its vision for the regional order that will follow.
Iran’s strategy of targeting Gulf states, which Tehran views as facilitating U.S. military operations, appears intended to demonstrate that the American presence is a liability rather than an asset. The objective is to persuade Gulf leaders that hosting U.S. bases brings greater insecurity and that accommodation with Iran is a safer alternative.
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