The Russian government is spending to try to combat this. In May, it announced it would raise pensions and the minimum wage by 10%.

It’s set up a system where employees of companies that have “suspended their activities” can temporarily transfer to another employer without breaking their employment contract. And it’s spending 17 billion rubles ($280 million) buying the bonds of Russian airlines, crippled by airspace bans and sanctions preventing maintenance and the supply of parts by foreign manufacturers.

It’s technology sanctions, like those affecting the airline industry that may have the most profound impact on Russia’s long-term economic prospects. In June, US commerce secretary Gina Raimondo said global semiconductor exports to Russia had collapsed by 90% since the war started. That is crippling production of everything from cars to computers, and will, experts say, put it further behind in the global technology race.

“The impact of sanctions will be more a slower burn rather than a quick hit,” says Weafer. “Russia is now looking at potentially a long period of stagnation.”

Nechaev is even more definitive. “Right now, the economic decline has started,” he says.