Trump's investigation miscalculation

In many ways Trump is an idiot savant. Despite his manifest flaws he has shown an uncommonly effective ability to define a political movement and capture its energy to his own political benefit. His continuing control of Republican primaries is evidence of his ongoing influence over American politics.

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But even idiot savants make mistakes. If Trump had chosen to retire to Mar-a-Lago and play golf or even if he had retreated to his resort and continued to exercise influence over the Republican party but chosen not to run again for office, I suspect that Attorney General Merrick Garland would have welcomed the excuse to forgo a prosecution of Trump (whether for the alleged presidential records violations that lie behind the search or for other offenses related to January 6th). Garland would likely have judged the precedent be too significant and the risks to civil society to extreme.

But by seriously considering running for office, and repeatedly teasing that he will run during his campaign-rally-like speeches, Trump increasingly takes the option of forbearance off the table. He mistakenly thinks that declaring his candidacy will immunize him from prosecution. But the opposite is true. By refusing to forswear ambition, he exacerbates the conditions of social conflict that make it almost mandatory for the attorney general to exercise his discretion in favor of charging Trump. Without the benefit of civil peace, the rule of law must prevail.

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