I think now you’re seeing — in terms of the efforts toward efficiency and rationing — some countries are more willing than others. If things become really severe this winter, I fear that you could see European countries start to look out for themselves rather than one another.

What would that mean, functionally?

It could lead countries to turn against each other in terms of whether energy is allowed to flow across borders. If you’re a country like Germany — which not only consumes a lot of gas but is also a transit country through which gas flows to other European countries — why would you allow gas to flow through your country when you’re shutting down your energy-intensive industries, while your economy is suffering? I think we could start to see governments saying, “Well, we’re going to restrict exports. We’re going to keep our energy at home.” Everyone starts to just look out for themselves, which I think would be exactly what Putin would hope for.

How much farther will he go, do you think?

I think it would be wise to assume that Russia will use every opportunity it can to turn the screws on Europe. Every time there is a proposed action to penalize or deter Putin, the question is: What will he do in response, and how might he retaliate?