A full-scale invasion of Taiwan is hence seen as the worst possible option which explains why China, while systematically developing and exercising the capabilities needed for such an undertaking, will pursue all possible alternatives. These include a naval blockade of the island which, directed against a sovereign state, would be an unequivocal act of war. China would however claim that this was not the case in relation to Taiwan as it was already sovereign Chinese territory. This explains why for some while China has been telling the US that the Taiwan Strait was not an international waterway.

A key consideration for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been the need to keep US forces out of the Taiwan Strait long enough to achieve the objective of occupying the island. The US has no formal commitment to intervene in the event of a Chinese attack and has for many years maintained a strategy of strategic ambiguity about its response. But in recent months US President Joe Biden has stated the US would intervene, even though his officials have walked back such statements.

The US position is not determined just by altruism. Taiwan – General Douglas MacArthur’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” – forms part of the first island chain, running from Japan through to Borneo along China’s eastern seaboard. US domination of this island chain is key to its domination of the Western Pacific, a domination China is for understandable reasons keen to break. If the US lost control of this island chain, this would fundamentally affect the global balance of power.