Will black Republicans make a comeback in Congress?

According to reports, the National Republican Congressional Committee says 81 Black candidates are running on the GOP ticket for the U.S. House in this year’s primaries, a marked increase from the 2020 primary cycle. Not all of these candidates will make it to Congress, though, as a number have already lost their primary elections outright or in runoffs. But it’s likely that, come January, Republicans will have the most Black members serving together in the U.S. House since 1889. The U.S. Senate could also break a record this year: If Republican nominee Herschel Walker defeats Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, and Sen. Tim Scott wins his reelection bid in South Carolina, there will be two Black Republicans serving in the upper chamber — the highest number ever.

There wasn’t always a dearth of Black Republican representation in Congress. Seven served in the House in the 43rd (1873-75) and 44th (1875-77) congresses,1 but following the end of the Reconstruction era, in 1877, declined. This didn’t begin to reverse in earnest until 1995, when two Black Republicans served together in the House again. The number of Black GOP representatives never increased beyond that, though, and many congresses had no Black Republicans at all. Next year will likely be different, however, as at least four Black Republicans — including two incumbents, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida and Rep. Burgess Owens of Utah — are favored to win seats in the House this fall, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast. But as you can see in the chart below, representation of Black Republicans still has a ways to go.