What they’re saying: “Net, net, consumers are still spending their hearts out which keeps the recession from becoming a reality,” according to FWDBonds chief economist Chris Rupkey.

“The old rule of thumb from the 80s is that three consecutive months of declining retail sales meant the economy had fallen off the cliff and into the recession abyss… [but] the economy hasn’t even entered the danger zone that warns recession is imminent.”

Zoom out: Still, that’s not stopping segments of the market from rendering an early verdict, with cracks starting to form in the foundation of what once buttressed solid growth.

Private sector output is flashing contraction signals, while jobless claims have spiked to their highest level since last fall.

Mixed second quarter earnings have been punctuated by nervous CEOs warning about growing risks.