Democrats have a Biden problem

Most of these Democrats, arguably, would be better positioned to top a 2024 ticket than Biden if he chooses not to run again. None carry his political baggage or lingering questions about their age. Trump’s return to power could be paved by a second Biden campaign. If Biden’s political team is honest with itself, stepping aside may be the best bet to head off a second Trump term. Kamala Harris would be the favorite as the sitting vice-president, but she would not be a lock in such an open field given her low approval ratings. The competition, at least, would toughen whichever candidate emerges in such a scenario — whether Harris or someone else.

The next open Democratic primary for president can’t be an attempted coronation (like Hillary Clinton’s slog in 2016) or even a race to find a candidate who can simply beat one kind of Republican (as Biden’s 2020 campaign became). What’s damning for Biden is how little he seems to be promising as another presidential bid draws near. If he wants to run again, what exactly does he want to do, especially since Republicans are poised to take control of at least one chamber of Congress after the midterms? Most of Obama’s signature accomplishments came in the first two years of his presidency — before the House fell to Republicans. The lack of urgency from the Biden administration is stunning; it can be argued that there are less than five months left to force any sort of significant policy through Congress. It is easy, even worthy, to vilify Manchin, but the grim reality is that any new reconciliation package must meet his demands. Going into a tough election, it would be helpful for Democrats to have another tangible accomplishment to tout. The Biden administration alienated Manchin after its doomed voting-rights push, a failure of the inside game that a 50-year veteran of Washington was supposed to have mastered by now.