All told, the model indicates that the most likely outcome is for Republicans to pick up a seat or two. That’s enough for a majority, as the GOP needs a net gain of just a seat for control. Considering past errors of the model, it suggests that Republicans have a roughly 3-in-5 shot at winning back the Senate.
The reason the model is so high on Senate Democrats compared with what you might expect given the national environment is simple: the state-level polling in swing states. Recent public data has looked surprisingly strong for Democrats in places such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
In fact, Democrats would be favored if we didn’t take into account the Republican lead on the generic ballot, Biden’s low approval rating and the tendency for the opposition party’s lead to grow during midterm elections.
State-level polling averages at this point in a midterm year has been fairly predictive of the actual fall result since 2006 (with an average difference of a little more than 6 points). It’s not all that different from state polling averages during the final weeks of a campaign (which have an average absolute error of a little less than 5 points).
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