Even with all these problems, however, numerous presidents have suffered difficult second years and poor first midterms only to go on to win reelection — a point I have made in previous columns. We’ve seen this a few times in recent decades: President Ronald Reagan went on to win reelection after the 1982 recession while President Bill Clinton won a second term after Democrats suffered major losses in the 1994 midterms — as did President Barack Obama after his party suffered a big midterm defeat in 2010. The notion that the rough waters of this moment somehow dooms the incumbent to failure doesn’t match the historical record.
Nor is it clear that there is another Democrat who would be in a better position come 2024. None of the major Democratic candidates in 2020 proved capable of mounting an appealing and formidable campaign. And some of those candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris, are now weighed down by new questions about their viability and do not appear to be strong candidates against Trump in the current economic and political environment.
Biden’s flaws and shortcomings were well known in the 2020 election, and for all the concerns about his age and stamina, he went on to win a decisive election against Trump. Of course, one of the President’s biggest challenges going into 2024 will be the economy, and if the Fed can’t manage a soft landing and the country slips into a recession, Democrats are going to face much bleaker prospects.
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