The choice, in other words, may not be a matter of whether Ukraine should give up territory or not, but whether it must give up territory now to limit the damage or continue fighting in the hopes of one day winning it all back – at egregious cost now, and with no guarantee that they would not later lose even more territory. For example, today Ukraine still holds key parts of the Donbas (the Slavyansk/Kramatorsk salient in the north, the Avdiivka area in the center, and large portions of the Donetsk region to the south. Kharkiv and Odessa are still fully under Kyiv’s control. Evidence suggests that as more time passes, that list of Ukraine-controlled cities will continue to shrink.
It would be a near-impossible feat for the West to provide enough heavy weaponry to Ukraine – and the massive volumes of large-caliber artillery ammunition the howitzers need – that would bring back into balance the major disadvantage Ukraine has in firepower. Even the modern rocket launchers the U.S. and UK recently committed will not materially change the negative balance for Kyiv.
Zelensky and the Ukrainian people will soon come face-to-face with the ugly prospect that continuing to fight will only bring more death and destruction to its people, cities, and armed forces – but be insufficient to stave off defeat. The truth is, military fundamentals and simple capacity are in Moscow’s favor. It is unlikely those factors change in time to avoid defeat for Kyiv and its brave people. That is the ugly, bitter reality of war.
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