Democrats misunderstand the suburban vote

Finally, an issue like abortion rights is vexed for the Democrats by the complications of public opinion on the issue, including in the suburbs. It is undeniably true that suburban voters are opposed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade but it is also true that they are open to significant limits on access to abortion—for example, suburban voters, by 53 percent to 41 percent, say they would favor a law in their state confining access to abortion (except in the case of medical emergency) to the first 15 weeks of a pregnancy. This suggests a contested playing field where Democrats’ ability to mobilize voters around the issue may be hindered by the party’s commitment to more or less unfettered access, which is not particularly popular.

In sum, the Democrats’ plan to turn the election around by targeting suburban voters on abortion rights and gun control seems mathematically challenged and unlikely to work in the current environment. Once again, the Democrats may be basing their strategy around an electorate that they wish existed but does not in the real world. Perhaps after November they will reconsider this approach.