According to Census Bureau figures, only 19.9 percent of voters 18- to 29-years old cast ballots in the 2014 midterms, which produced a GOP sweep. But, inspired in part by the anti-Trump movement, under-30 turnout soared to 35.6 percent in 2018, helping Democrats win control of the House. Turnout was also up substantially among 30- to-44-year-olds.

The problem for Democrats now is that Biden’s numbers among young people are down, and so is enthusiasm for voting. Sean McElwee, executive director of the think tank Data for Progress, noted in an interview that Biden’s ratings among the young were low during the 2020 primaries but rose steadily once he secured the Democratic nomination. Since the election, McElwee said, there’s been “a slow but steady erosion” in the president’s standing, back toward his more desultory early 2020 numbers.

Young voters are affected by some of the same issues as older voters, including inflation and the persistence of covid-19, But among the Democratic-leaning young, there is a particular sense of disappointment. “Despite Democratic accomplishments and the Republicans building barriers to additional achievements,” Democratic pollster Molly Murphy told me, “younger voters feel they’re not getting much from Democrats that’s changing their lives.”