Forecasters see a longer inflation slog

Inflation pressures persist — Nearly three-quarters of economists (71 percent) anticipate that core inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, will have peaked by the end of the second quarter and start to come down. But they see much higher inflation this year than they projected in the previous survey, released in February.

Economists surveyed by NABE now expect PCE inflation will rise 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year ago, up from 3.2 percent in the previous survey. And they project core PCE will remain half a percentage point above the Fed’s 2 percent target through 2023.

Forecasts for the consumer price index also rose sharply: Economists see CPI rising 5.6 percent this year, a full two percentage points higher than the median increase projected in February. (Their forecast for 2023 inflation edged up, too, to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent in the last survey.)

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