The effects could be severe. While China’s first-quarter data did not capture the worst of this spring’s lockdowns, a portent of things to come could be seen in a 3.5 per cent year-on-year fall in retail sales in March. Trade figures for April showed a marked slowdown in year-on-year export growth — 3.9 per cent compared to almost 15 per cent in March — yet even that was better than expected. Anecdotal evidence and surveys taken ahead of the release of key domestic data such as real estate and infrastructure investment on May 16 suggest a reckoning is coming. April vehicle sales fell 48 per cent year-on-year, according to industry data released on Wednesday…

Last weekend, Li warned that China’s “current employment trends are complex and grim” and called on “all localities” to prioritise protecting jobs to “ensure economic stability”. On Wednesday night, the State Council promised more relief measures for workers and employers, citing the pandemic’s “larger than expected impact” on the economy. But the localised approach to lockdowns makes it difficult for even municipal officials, let alone party leaders in Beijing, to assess their extent and economic impact.

One such official in the city of Nanjing, Jiangsu province, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to foreign media, voiced his frustration: “The Politburo Standing Committee made it clear last week that fighting Covid was our top priority,” he says. “But we can’t ignore the economy, which is in freefall.”