How Barnette could throw the PA Senate primary to McCormick

But pollsters and other operatives I connected with posed two theories.

A) That engaging Barnette is too big of a risk in potentially elevating her just when casual voters begin paying attention. An attack would be seen as more of a reason for hardcore, anti-establishment conservatives to rally around her even more fervently and supply her with more energy. Barnette doesn’t have the resources to reach all of Pennsylvania’s 11 media markets. Let her lie with her 22%; that’s enough to get close but not win…

… AND/OR …

B) Barnette’s largely splitting the MAGA vote with Oz, therefore McCormick has no reason to stop her mojo. Let her eat into that disaffected, rural, Trump-loving base as much as possible. That subtracts from Oz and allows McCormick to squeak through between the two of them and eek out a victory on the calculus of traditional (Toomey) Republicans + a divided Trump faction.