Because of this, the activists can’t affect elections much: They are already voting exclusively and regularly for one party or the other. The best the parties can try to do is to turn out a few more of their activists than the other side manages. The big hope has always been to move the less-polarized middle, but it’s starting to look like this issue just doesn’t have that power.
Power is another name for what political scientists call “voter intensity,” which explains why many issues that poll well, such as stricter handgun controls, never seem to go anywhere. While a lot of people care a little about gun control, in most cases, it’s not their No. 1 issue, or even No. 10. Gun owners, by contrast, often become highly focused single-issue voters. Politicians, understandably, are more responsive to those who actually vote on the issue.
That’s not the case with abortion, where there is a lot of intensity on both sides. But if anything there is more on the pro-life side, so intensity doesn’t help Democrats here, either. And the middle just doesn’t seem to be getting any more intense, even with Roe in the balance. Possibly because they understand the effect of place: For vast numbers of them, while they may hate what other states are doing, their local abortion law will probably be something they can accept.
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