Putin can see the divisions within Europe over energy supplies, which preceded the Ukraine crisis. And he can see that Western powers continue to be divided over sanctions regimes against Russia and arms supplies to Ukraine.

More importantly, it will be clear to Putin that the political elites of the US, UK, France and Germany are struggling. Governments in all four countries have, variously, struggled through Brexit, Trump and Covid and are now enduring struggles at the polls and a rapidly worsening economic crisis.

For the moment, Russia also has the backing of China. We can only guess how much Beijing is ready to help Moscow get around Western sanctions, or to help it in military matters. What is clear is that, for all its relative indifference to the fate of Ukraine, China is being drawn into Moscow’s war.