The more worrisome possibility is that Putin has decided that he will merely declare NATO the true source of Russia’s defeat, and plunge Russia into World War III—a genuine third world war, rather than the one that the Ukrainians and others claim is already under way—with the Russians initiating attacks against Western forces, perhaps at the Ukrainian border or at sea. This choice does not require Putin to be a madman, but rather to be as ill-informed and overconfident as he has been for years. (Putin, as one NATO official put it, “has an unwavering belief in his ability to control events.”) Faced with defeat, he might gamble the existence of Russia itself in an expanded war that Russia cannot win, betting that NATO will make peace before the Kremlin is left with no recourse but to cross the nuclear threshold.
To judge from Russian media—which have gone from purveying sensationalism to drowning in utter hysteria—the idea of Russia fighting NATO to an honorable draw is far more attractive than enduring continuing defeats at the hands of the Ukrainians and their courageous president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
And apparently, if that means courting the risk of global annihilation, so be it.
Even if Putin chooses a less dangerous path, he is unlikely to declare a kind of Nixonian “peace with honor” exit. Here, Putin is in a bind.
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