So far there seems to be nothing behind his language. Putin may have ordered a “special regime of combat duty”, but no one seemed to know what that meant; it actually turned out not to be a raising of the alert level. Arguably, this had no practical effect – but it did certainly make Western headlines and concentrate the minds of Western diplomats and defence planners. Which was obviously the point.

Indeed, if anything this language is a sign of weakness. Unlike the Soviet Union, today’s Russia is trying to play the role of a great power with very little to back up its ambitions. Its economy is distinctly limited and facing growing pressure; its soft power is virtually non-existent; its military is mired in Ukraine. Its nuclear weapons – or at least their threat – remains one card Moscow can still play.

Yet Shoigu did not look happy when he got his orders back in February. Maybe he, like the rest of us, cannot be sure quite how far Putin would go. Three months ago, it seemed inconceivable that he might use a nuclear weapon, even a tactical one. Yet today’s Putin is not the essentially cautious figure of the past, and his next move is much harder to predict. It still seems monstrously unlikely, but no longer unthinkable.