“I think there’s mounting evidence that he’s in a scenario where he’s running up the middle, unmolested, with a unique message and some things in his favor,” said Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist who lives out of state but donated $250 to Dolan’s campaign in October. “Does it mean he has a lock on the race? No way. But it’s a competitive race, and he’s in it. He’s got the momentum, as of last week.”

Dolan likely has a low ceiling of support, given his dependence on Republican voters who are willing to move on from Trump — a minority of the party. But in a splintered field of candidates, that could be enough.

“When I made my decision to get into the race, I knew that it was going to be a tough slog, at least publicly, for a while,” Dolan said in an interview. “I knew that I would not be doing well in the polls until much, much later in the campaign. I think it’s playing out as I thought it was going to play out.”

Internal Dolan polling shows him “tracking to second place,” according to a person familiar with the data who said the campaign has a “glide path to getting a plurality of the vote.”