How badly will the Democrats lose the midterms?

Could the Democratic fundraising edge—especially in Senate races—overcome this enthusiasm gap and the GOP advantages on the generic ballot? Cold hard cash could be dispositive in close races, but not if Republicans have enough money to be competitive. He who spends most doesn’t automatically win. Ask Sarah Gideon, Jaime Harrison and Amy McGrath. All outspent GOP incumbents in their 2020 Senate races but lost.

Here’s another scenario: Independents will find the administration’s election message of “jobs and results”—shots in the arms, a recovering jobs market, the bipartisan infrastructure bill—more appealing than the Republican focus on inflation, immigration, crime and cultural issues. This seems possible but unlikely. It was the previous Oval Office occupant who delivered the vaccines in record time, the job market is healing itself as the pandemic fades (slowly too), and there aren’t shovel-ready projects. Didn’t Mr. Biden learn from the unpopularity of the 2009 stimulus?

Democrats will try to turn the campaign into a referendum on Donald Trump, attempting to peel off some of the 74% of independents and 37% of Republicans in last December’s Washington Post poll who say there’s “no solid evidence” that “there was widespread voter fraud” in 2020.

Making Mr. Trump the center of electoral attention requires his cooperation. That could happen.