Nevada should be the poster child for this trend. It’s now majority non-white. Dems control the governorship, both Senate seats and three out of four House seats, and they’ve won the state in four straight presidential elections.

But as Teixiera notes, Democrats have actually been losing ground in the state: “Nevada went from three-tenths of percentage more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016 to 2 points more Republican in 2020.” Nevada Democrats’ margin among Hispanics dropped by 8 points between those two elections, and the decline “was driven almost entirely by working-class Hispanics.”

In other words: Democrats’ Hispanic voter problem is their working-class voter problem.

JESUS MARQUEZ has watched this change up close. The Las Vegas-based consultant and radio host was a member of the national Latinos for Trump board in 2016, when the idea of such a group was treated as a joke by many political pundits.

He now advises the Laxalt campaign. And nobody is laughing at his Latinos for Laxalt events. “We had close to a hundred Latinos at the last one,” he told me. “These were all new faces. They were on fire.” A March survey from the Democratic firm Blueprint Polling showed that Laxalt and Cortez Masto were tied among Nevada’s Hispanic voters.