This new COVID variant is the least predictable one yet

Usually, there’s a pattern with new COVID lineages. An uptick in positive tests from clinics, hospitals, and wastewater samples correlates with a proportional increase in symptomatic infections.

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But when it comes to BA.2, “something different seems to be occurring,” Peter Hotez, an expert in vaccine development at Baylor College, told The Daily Beast. “BA.2 is going up everywhere in terms of percentage of virus isolated” in tests, Hotez explained, “yet this translates into many different scenarios in terms of rise in cases.”…

The first confusing datapoint actually wasn’t in Europe—it was in Africa. Weirdly, BA.2 was a virtual no-show in South Africa. That country logged a big surge in BA.1 cases in December, and then… nothing. A steady decline in cases even as BA.2 was ravaging other big, rich countries.

Some European countries likewise have escaped significant harm from BA.2. Others are reeling.

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