While our stand against Russia’s brutal Ukrainian campaign is appropriately about drawing the line to prevent a World War III from which the planet might not survive, the truth is we’re already at war. For the moment, the Ukrainians are shouldering the battle, human suffering, and devastation, while the U.S. and its allies fight by all means short of armed conflict. Critical in that support has been U.S. intelligence and American special operations forces’ work with Ukrainian counterparts that has paid significant dividends on the battlefield. And the well-considered declassification of intelligence continues to undermine Putin’s plans, exposing disinformation and cautioning would-be enablers, while likewise contributing to cohesion among allies.

It’s intelligence and messaging on which we’re relying to preempt Russia from escalating to chemical, biological or nuclear weapons in the near term. The economic consequences Russia faces from sanctions, hard as they will be, are a long-term challenge for Putin — but not as immediately persuasive as might be the real threat of a popular uprising or insider threat that intelligence and covert operations might bring about if he persists…

U.S. intelligence forecasting the very real potential for Putin’s use of weapons of mass destruction aims to telegraph the risks to the Russian leader, dissuade those who would execute his plan, and encourage others with the access and power to act against his doing so. In parallel, it fosters allied consensus, coordination and preparation should the unthinkable come to fruition.