Biden's regime change remark could make it harder to end the war

Putin may ultimately be uninterested in a negotiated solution. His emissaries’ positions at the “peace talks” so far don’t reflect a serious desire for a ceasefire. Still, world leaders—whether it’s the president of the United States, Ukraine, France, Poland, or any other country involved even peripherally in this war—must act as if a negotiated peace is possible. (At one point in his speech, Biden said, “Putin can and must end this war”—which wouldn’t be possible if he were out of power.) They must do this, not just out of decorum but because they expressly don’t want to engage in a “total war.” They don’t want to see Ukraine pushed into abject surrender, for the obvious reasons; and they don’t want to see Russia pushed into abject surrender either, because Putin, faced with that prospect, might try to regain some leverage by firing off a few nuclear weapons. This—Putin’s nuclear option—is the only reason Biden and the other NATO leaders aren’t intervening in this war directly.

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This war can go one of two ways: the endless slog of stalemate, or a negotiated settlement. And that being the case, the President of the United States should not publicly call for Putin’s ouster from power—i.e., shouldn’t sway Putin into believing, even one iota more than he might already, that he has no options other than to keep fighting, forever if necessary.

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